Tue Jan 6, 10:34 AM Pacific
Reid: Franken is Senator-elect, Coleman should concede
Harry Reid just delivered a message to Norm Coleman from the floor of the United States Senate, calling Al Franken the “Senator-elect” from the state of Minnesota, and saying it was time for Coleman to concede his defeat.
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Tue Jan 6, 9:04 AM Pacific
New Senators sworn in, sans Burris and Franken
The Dem dominated 111th Congress gets underway.
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Mon Jan 5, 8:20 PM Pacific
Tax cuts are besides the point
Over the past 24 hours, people have mostly focused on the tax cut elements of President-elect Obama’s economic recovery plan. From a short-term political perspective, that might be a good thing, but I don’t really think it’s the most important aspect of his plan.
Spread over two years, the tax cuts are pretty much in line with the $131 billion in tax cuts that the 2008 stimulus plan offered. While that plan didn’t turn the economy around, eliminating those tax cuts in the middle of a recession doesn’t seem wise. Moreover, Obama campaigned on these tax cuts, so it’s not like they are unexpected.
The only question that is really important here is whether or not the package will work. The current stimulus plan envisions $405-$465 billion for infrastructure, health care, and other projects over the next two years. Will that, combined with continuing the 2008 tax cut stimulus levels, turn this economy around?
There’s a lot of focus on the number of Republican votes that this bill gets. But the number of Republican votes that this bill gets has no lasting political value.
George W. Bush won the support of half the Democratic caucus for the Iraq War Resolution. As it turns out, despite his bipartisan success, the IWR was one of the most disastrous pieces of legislation of his presidency.
The point here is that the the only real thing that matters is results. So from a political point of view, there is absolutely no reason to compromise more than necessary to get a bill passed — not for partisan reasons, but rather because we need the best possible bill to get passed.
If the legislation passes with 62 votes and the economy grows at a healthy pace in 2011 and 2012, Obama will win an easy re-election. If the legislation passes with 85 votes and the economy gets worse, he’ll have a tough road.
The point is: the best politics is also the best policy. To the extent that GOPers have good ideas, bring them on board. If $775 billion is the number this economy needs, go for it.
But if the real number is $1.15 trillion (to pick a number from thin air) and that means the bill will pass narrowly, go for the $1.15 trillion. It’s not just the right thing to do, it’s also the best politics.
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Mon Jan 5, 1:19 PM Pacific
He’s lawyering up
Coleman pledges to sue in the next 24 hours to drag out the process of Senator-elect Franken’s victory.
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Mon Jan 5, 7:35 AM Pacific
Coleman getting ready to quit?
Former Senator Norm Coleman’s lawyer has raised the possibility that Coleman won’t file a legal contest:
Asked whether Coleman would sue, Coleman recount lawyer Fritz Knaak said: “He doesn’t have to make that decision yet. I have no reason at this time … to believe we aren’t going to be contesting this thing if we’re down at the end of the day.”
“The only thing that could waver or change that would be a call from Norm Coleman saying, ‘I don’t think so,’ and I don’t see that coming,” Knaak said.
One the one hand, Knaak is still signaling Coleman’s predilection to litigation. On the other hand, this is the first time that Coleman’s camp has publicly raised the possibility of conceding.
The reason? Even they know the numbers won’t change by much:
“It’s conceivable, I’m not saying probable or likely, but conceivable that in a … [court] contest, we could see these numbers change by hundreds on both sides,” he said. “Everything is on the table and it’s a different game.”
It’s time for Coleman to give up, and this seems like the first signal that he might just do the right thing. But if I were a betting man, I wouldn’t exactly bet on it.
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Mon Jan 5, 1:25 AM Pacific
Examining the stimulus package
The NYT and WSJ take a look at the emerging details surrounding President-elect Obama’s stimulus package, particularly the roughly $300 billion in proposed tax cuts.
Overall, the package will cover a two-year period with a price-tag of $675 billion to $775 billion, $270 billion to $310 billion of which would be spent on tax cuts. The balance — $405 billion to $465 billion — would be spent on infrastracture, health care, and other programs.
One thing to keep in mind is that in early 2008 Congress passed a $131 billion tax cut stimulus plan covering one year. Therefore, while $300 billion over two years might seem like a lot, it’s actually the same level of spending as we saw in 2008.
The problem, of course, was that the 2008 tax cut stimulus didn’t do much, if any, good.
Since the tax cut portion of the stimulus will more or less be a continuation of the 2008 tax cut stimulus, the real change from 2008 will be the $405 to $465 billion in spending on infrastracture, health care, and other projects.
On an annual basis, this is about $203 to $233 billion dollars in actual stimulus spending.
In 2007, the U.S. GDP was roughly $13.8 trillionOur GDP is roughly $14.4 trillion, so that means the “new” part of the stimulus package will be about 1.5% of GDP.
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Mon Jan 5, 12:03 AM Pacific
GOP leader calls Obama “President” two weeks before inauguration
Ha!
I guess he better get used it!
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Sun Jan 4, 9:48 PM Pacific
Another thought on Reid’s open door
Here’s another part of Reid’s MTP interview:
If Blagojevich would do the right thing, that is step down, or he’ll probably be impeached. And he gave us Mr. Burris, he gave us Jesse Jackson Jr., Danny Davis, Madigan, all the fine people who we have from Illinois, they would be taken care of just like this.
…And then if Pat Quinn—who I’ve spoken to, a very fine man who’s the lieutenant governor—would become the acting governor or the governor, he wants to appoint Burris or anyone else, that would be fine.
Everyone agrees Quinn will be governor sooner or later, probably sooner. If he were to say he that he plans to appoint Burris to the seat if he takes office, that would give senators all the cover they need to just get this issue over with, even if they seat Burris while Blago is still in office — but on his way out.
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Sun Jan 4, 9:23 PM Pacific
Reid Cracks Open Door To Burris
This is fairly significant:
MR. GREGORY: How does this end? Do you think Roland Burris will be in the United States Senate?
SEN. REID: It’s going to be very, be very difficult for that to occur. I’ve learned being in—a senator for the time I have that anything can happen. The best thing that would happen, as I’ve indicated on this program and I’ve said before…
MR. GREGORY: Mm-hmm.
SEN. REID: …Blagojevich should step down. He should do it today. If not, he’ll be impeached. And I—and that’s prior to his being…
MR. GREGORY: But are you willing to go to the mat on this to deny Roland Burris, if it requires going to the Supreme Court? Is it worth that effort?
SEN. REID: The state of Illinois deserves a vote in the United States Senate, and the people of the state of Illinois, the fifth most populous state in the union, deserve that vote. It’s too bad Blagojevich has diverted attention from the real issue. And we’ll—we’re—as I’ve indicated, we’re going to come—I’m going to meet with Senator McConnell, my Republican counterpart. I hope to do that Monday evening. I think it’s around 6:00 or something like that. We’ll talk about this. I hope we can solve this issue on a bipartisan basis.
MR. GREGORY: But there sounds to me like there may be some room here to negotiate and actually seat Burris?
SEN. REID: Hey, listen, David, I’m an old trial lawyer. There’s always room to negotiate.
MR. GREGORY: All right, so you’re not saying no completely that he won’t serve?
SEN. REID: That’s right.
Reid is still adamant that Blago should not have appointed Burris, and that the Senate has the power to block him. But there’s a difference between asserting a power and pledging to use it.
So why the shift?
One reason is that the impeachment and eventual removal of Blagojevich from office is going to make this issue go away, politically. Once Blago is gone, the perception of taint surrounding Burris will be lessened.
But the other reason may have to do with Al Franken’s victory in Minnesota.
As Nate Silver points out, now that Franken has scored an unexpectedly wide margin — essentially erasing Coleman’s path to the Senate and making it likely that Franken will soon be seated — the Senate will have 99 seated members.
As Nate reminds us, with 98 seated members, Democrats need just 59 votes to achieve the three-fifths supermajority needed to defeat Republican filibusters, but with 99 senators, they will need 60 votes.
That means that as far as breaking filibusters go, there would not have been an advantage to seating Burris alone (in the absence of Franken). With or without Burris, Dems would have been 2 votes shy of the supermajority. But with Franken added to the mix, Burris becomes the difference between 1 votes and 2 votes.
So in a weird way, it might turn out to be the case that Roland Burris is Al Franken’s biggest fan.
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Sun Jan 4, 5:30 PM Pacific
The Strange Case of Bruce Ivins
The NYT takes a detailed look at the incredible story of the FBI’s anthrax suspect, Bruce Ivins.
